According to information from some meteorologists, Maharashtra is unlikely to receive widespread rainfall over the next five to six days. The possibility of heavy rainfall during this period is also low. As a result, the prevailing weather conditions are expected to continue across the state over the coming days. If there are any significant changes in atmospheric conditions, the India Meteorological Department will provide further forecasts.
The period from mid-September marks the beginning of the southwest monsoon's withdrawal. Once the monsoon starts retreating from Rajasthan, it affects weather conditions in the subsequent period. In Maharashtra, the monsoon generally withdraws in October. However, meteorologists have said that this year's retreating monsoon rainfall is also likely to remain below average.
Considering the period from June 1 to September, Maharashtra has recorded a rainfall deficit of around 16 percent. The highest deficits have been reported in Marathwada and Vidarbha. Marathwada has recorded a deficit of around 37 percent, Vidarbha 24 percent, the Konkan division 11 percent and Madhya Maharashtra around 5 percent.
Rainfall deficits of up to 50 percent have also been reported in several districts. The situation was particularly severe in August, when rainfall deficits exceeded 70 to 80 percent in several districts.
The weather conditions for rainfall in Maharashtra in the coming period will depend on a possible low-pressure area developing over the Bay of Bengal after September 22 to 23. However, the intensity of the system and the direction in which it moves will determine its impact on rainfall conditions in Maharashtra. Meteorologists have therefore clarified that it is currently not possible to predict heavy rainfall across the entire state.
The rainfall deficit is expected to affect not only kharif crops but also groundwater levels, agriculture and other sectors. Several parts of Marathwada and Vidarbha are witnessing crops drying up due to a shortage of water, creating a major challenge for farmers.
In addition, if the El Niño conditions intensify over the next two to three months, temperatures could be affected. Temperatures may remain somewhat higher than usual. However, this does not immediately indicate the arrival of a major heatwave. Weakened monsoon winds, lower humidity and clear skies can contribute to a rise in temperatures.
Meteorologists have also clarified that temperatures will continue to fluctuate according to seasonal changes. With widespread rainfall currently unlikely over Maharashtra and the impact of the rainfall deficit becoming increasingly visible in several regions, the next weather system after September 22 to 23 could be significant for the state's rainfall outlook.
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